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Prediction for CME (2018-03-05T23:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-03-05T23:39Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/13716/-1
CME Note: First seen in STA Cor2 at 2018-03-05T23:39Z, but this is after a data gap from 19:30Z to 23:30Z so the true start time is uncertain. The source is likely the long-duration filling in of the dim CH region visible in the South of AIA 193, centered around longitude -10, beginning around 18:00 on 2018-03-05. The CME is also visible as a faint partial halo to the SW in C2/C3, but not visible in the difference imaging.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-03-09T23:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-03-09T18:30Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:

Model & CME input parameters:
#1
SHOCK arrival prediction:
start time: 2018-03-06 08:45
start distance: 20 Rsun
initial speed: 550 km/s
halfwidth: 50 deg
cmd: 30 deg
solar wind speed: 400 km/s
gamma: 0.1
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SHOCK arrival date & time: 2018-03-09 18:30
SHOCK arrival speed: 450 km/s
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#2
CME arrival prediction:
start time: 2018-03-06 08:45
start distance: 20 Rsun
initial speed: 550 km/s
halfwidth: 35 deg
cmd: 30 deg
solar wind speed: 400 km/s
gamma: 0.2
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CME arrival date & time: 2018-03-10 08:30
CME arrival speed: 380 km/s
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Lead Time: 56.27 hour(s)
Difference: 5.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mateja Dumbovic (Hvar Obs) on 2018-03-07T15:14Z

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